Sunday, February 10, 2008

Feb 11-15th, The Coming Week

From recent market action, I'm not too optimistic about the coming week. It's difficult to see how we'll avoid a retest of our panic lows of a couple weeks ago. We've got a number of economic reports this week, including retail sales/business inventories on Wednesday which will probably carry a lot of weight. We've also got industrial production, capacity utilization, and preliminary Michigan Sentiment numbers on Friday, not to mention options expiration. Personally, I would avoid "investing" in anything here until I see that the market can demonstrate strength in the midst of bad news. I would call it "market sensitivity". Currently we're in an ultra sensitive state - any bad news can lead to a precipitous drop. Eventually the market will become "insensitive" to further bad news, representing "priced-in" risk. So I'd pay close attention to economic data and resulting market reactions over the next few weeks. Once the market can shrug off bad data, or even move up, it's probably safer to assume that we've found a short term bottom. You can find a list of upcoming economic releases at most financial portals, including finance.yahoo.com.

Speaking of Yahoo - it will be interesting to see the market's reaction to YHOO's rejection of MSFT's $44 billion bid tomorrow morning.

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