April Rally

The market has been doing exceptionally well, reacting to both good and bad news by moving higher. In fact, we are now up almost 1500 points on the Dow from the low set by the BSC news. As we now approach the 200 day moving average for all the averages, I expect a pause, as we digest these gains. I received calls from several people asking about the market in general recently, and explained that the market never behaves in an "expected" manner. The credit environment has not changed substantially, but I think the most encouraging factor in this entire ordeal is that our US dollar has actually rallied while the Fed has executed about $200 billion in TSLF's. Dollar stabilization in this type of environment, I believe has provided an underlying bid for the entire market.

Personally, I have been focusing my efforts on trend trading GOOG after the blowout earnings report. Today it finally hit 600.

On a side note, MA and V have been doing very well, which was unexpected for me. The only trading I did in these names was going long MA post earnings, and selling during the same day. MA hit 300 today. Overall, their relative performance to each other has been relatively similar. V is up from approximately 60 to 85, a whopping 41%, while MA has rallied from approximatel 210 to 300, or 45%. I still remain more bullish on MA than V, despite its share price. Ultimately I expect MA to greatly outperform V percentage wise. V is enjoying a great deal of post IPO hype.

For 2008, I still don't have a very optimistic view of our economy as a whole. Future earnings outlook has not been entirely bullish, and I believe we are in a holding pattern for another 3 months, when we get another round of earnings. Without the expectation of near term growth in earnings, i find it hard for institutions to become heavily involved in buying here. Without institutional support, we may see a steady drift lower. However, as a trader, I am always open to any and all scenarios that may occur. The most important thing to do is to recognize a trend and follow it, regardless of what kind of headlines you see out there.